During the pandemic, guitar sales shot through the roof.  At one point, Sweetwater ran out of guitars.  Actually, I don’t know if that’s true, or if it’s an urban legend, but it is true that guitar sales were huge during the pandemic.  Technically we’re still in the pandemic as I write this on July 4, 2021.  As of now, over 600,000 Americans have died from Covid-19, but only about half of the country has been vaccinated.  This has still been enough to reduce new cases nationwide down to about 3,500 per day.  Almost all of them could have been avoided, according to almost every doctor in the country, but this isn’t a health blog.

Anyway, let me get to the point.  The pedal market has been oversaturated for almost a decade, new guitar sales have slowed, and most industry watchers are expecting the used guitar market to explode in the near future.  Right now, you can still get a used Epiphone Les Paul for $350.  Right now, Sam Ash is desperate to buy used gear.  Many people are still avoiding public places.  As more and more people get out and about, I’m expecting live music to explode.  And I think that will cause a small wave of new and used guitar purchases.  A very small wave.

But with modern music dominated by electronics, doesn’t that mean the guitar is on the way out?  Will the guitar become the new saxophone?  The sax used to be the featured solo instrument in early rock music, but not so much after that.

The answer is no.  The top 100 pop songs of today may be dominated by synths, but there are a lot of people who listen to sub-genres… more than ever before.  Gone are the days when the radio or Mtv created superstars.  The closest modern replacement are the Spotify playlists that are popular, and they serve as the new place for record companies to buy popularity for their artists.  I’m not suggesting payola, but there are ways if you have money to get artists heard on Spotify.  Spend the money, get the listens.

Still, genres like Metal are alive and well.  Same with Rock.  As to whether the top artists in these fields are pushing musical boundaries?  They are… but you won’t find the boundary pushers at the top of the Spotify Metal Playlists.  I’m way of topic, here.  Let me adjust…

I do not think that there will BE a big gear crash for guitars, amps, drums, etc.  I do believe there will be a crash in the pedal market, but the bigger companies will survive.  There are thousands of great pedals out there. Pedals are here to stay.  But the market is beyond oversaturated.

I could be wrong, though.  The iOS app market is far more oversaturated than the pedal market, yet that hasn’t prevented tons of new app developers from forming companies and making free apps.

One interesting area to keep an eye on over the next decade is the used tube amp market.  As more and more players grow up with modeling, I’m expecting the tube amp market to get smaller and smaller.  Tube amps aren’t going away, but there is already a movement to modeling in progress.  And with it, I expect an increase in used tube amps.

No clever summary at the end of this post, I’m afraid.  This is all just crystal ball gazing.  No one knows what will actually happen.